Real Housewives, Real Entertainment, Real... Estate?

Who’s excited for the debut of Real Housewives of Salt Lake City this week?! And who’s favorite part of the show is ogling all of the real estate? 

Perhaps most important of all - who wishes they had bought property in LA or Miami when the first seasons of each of those series aired (October 2010 and February 2011, respectively)?

Could you have thrown darts randomly and made money buying a house then?

What real estate market impact can we expect from the upcoming Salt Lake City premier?

Let’s find out!

Timing is everything!

Buying in any of the four cities that debuted prior to the end of the financial crisis in 2Q09 resulted in losses even five years later! But by late 2010, both coasts were clear.

OK, but controlling for timing, can I expect a bump in my city’s property values when Bravo comes to town? The answer is no!

On average, series locations outperformed other large cities leading up to the debut season. But, three years after premiering, those locations are slightly lagging the metro index. What do you have to say for yourself, Potomac?!?

Looking forward...

So what does this mean for the property values in the upcoming Real Housewives location of Salt Lake City? For that, we look at Dallas and the Upper East Side of NYC, which have some similar characteristics. For instance, both Dallas and NYC:

  • outperformed the metro, state, and national home price indices uniformly across the prior three year and five year timeframes
  • were launched in a very weak economy (prior six month US real GDP growth rate)

We can see from the first chart that the overhang of the 2007-2009 recession maintained further downward pressure on NYC property values, whereas the 2015-2016 slowdown did not result in a slowdown in forward real estate price growth for Dallas so far.

From the third chart we can see also see that both locations underperformed their respective states but outperformed the metro index and national index over the next three years.

This suggests that there might be more upside in some less well known Utah cities like Provo and St. George.

It's time...

READ MORE: The 10 Best Architectural Digest Celebrity House Tours on YouTube

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